Are Capital Controls and Central Bank Intervention Effective?

Capital controls and intervention in the foreign exchange market are two controversial policy options that many countries have adopted in the past in order to influence the exchange rate and moderate capital flows. Colombia has a long record in the use of these policies with mixed results and often non negligible costs. The objective of this paper is to evaluate for the case of Colombia the effectiveness of capital controls and central bank intervention for depreciating the exchange rate, reducing its volatility, and moderating the exchange rate vulnerability to external shocks. The paper uses high frequency data from 1993 to 2010, and a GARCH model of the peso/US dollar exchange rate return. The main findings indicate that neither capital controls nor central bank intervention used separately were successful for depreciating the exchange rate. On the contrary, they augmented its volatility. Nonetheless, when both policies were used simultaneously, a statistical significant effect was obtained by which the interaction of capital control and intervention in the foreign exchange market were effective to produce a daily average depreciation of the exchange rate, without increasing its volatility. This result however should be taken with caution given the special economic circumstances that characterized 2008, when most of this interaction happened.Capital controls (Tobin tax), central bank intervention, GARCH regression model of the exchange rate return, effectiveness. Classification JEL:F31, F32, E58, C52.

Fiscal Policy Throughout the Cycle: The Colombian Experience

This paper reviews the relationship between the business cycle and public finances in Colombia. The evidence shows that cyclical movements in output systematically affect the situation of public finances. Hence, the distinction between the cyclical and permanent (i.e. structural) components of the fiscal balance may allow fiscal authorities to determine the extent to which the fiscal stance in a particular year reflects their discretionary actions. Our findings indicate that the cyclical component of the central government balance in Colombia has in general been fairly small. For instance, during the recession and recovery period 1999-2003, the cyclical component attained, on average, -0,5% of the GDP which explained only 8% of the actual overall deficit. More recently in 2006, the cyclical component amounted to +0,8% of the GDP, equivalent to 17% of the actual fiscal imbalance. Governments are not usually neutral during the business cycle. Ideally, they ought to practice a counter-cyclical fiscal policy to moderate the magnitude of output fluctuations. However, in emerging economies, counter-cyclical fiscal policies are inhibited by domestic and external factors, such as credit restrictions, quality of institutions, fiscal rules, corruption, voracity effect, etc. Using a standard approach we find that fiscal policy in Colombia has been pro-cyclical over the last 45 years or so, with the primary surplus falling (and the deficit rising) as a share of GDP by approximately 1/5th of a percentage point when the output gap improves by one percentage point.Fiscal Policy, Business Cycle, Stabilization, Deficit, Budget. Classification JEL: E62; E32; E63; H62; H61.

How a General-Purpose Commonsense Ontology can Improve Performance of Learning-Based Image Retrieval

The knowledge representation community has built general-purpose ontologies which contain large amounts of commonsense knowledge over relevant aspects of the world, including useful visual information, e.g.: "a ball is used by a football player", "a tennis player is located at a tennis court". Current state-of-the-art approaches for visual recognition do not exploit these rule-based knowledge sources. Instead, they learn recognition models directly from training examples. In this paper, we study how general-purpose ontologies---specifically, MIT's ConceptNet ontology---can improve the performance of state-of-the-art vision systems. As a testbed, we tackle the problem of sentence-based image retrieval. Our retrieval approach incorporates knowledge from ConceptNet on top of a large pool of object detectors derived from a deep learning technique. In our experiments, we show that ConceptNet can improve performance on a common benchmark dataset. Key to our performance is the use of the ESPGAME dataset to select visually relevant relations from ConceptNet. Consequently, a main conclusion of this work is that general-purpose commonsense ontologies improve performance on visual reasoning tasks when properly filtered to select meaningful visual relations.Comment: Accepted in IJCAI-1

Un experimento de enseñanza en grado octavo sobre la argumentacıón en un ambıente de geometría dınámıca

El presente artículo reporta resultados de una investigación realizada en el marco de un trabajo de grado que se presentó como requisito para optar al título de magíster en Educación Matemática de la Universidad de Medellín. Se analizó la argumentación de nueve estudiantes de grado octavo de un colegio en Medellín (Colombia) cuando resolvían problemas con el apoyo del programa de geometría dinámica Cabri. Los argumentos de los estudiantes se caracterizaron usando el modelo Toulmin. Además, también se analizaron las acciones que realizó o dejó de hacer el profesor, cuya intención es favorecer la producción de argumentos. Para caracterizar los argumentos se utilizó un conjunto de categorías; unas tomadas de los referentes teóricos y otras emergentes. Como resultado de la investigación, se presentan ideas respecto al uso de geometría dinámica, la propuesta de enseñanza, los argumentos de los estudiantes y las acciones del profesor

Promotion and teaching of pronunciation in a ninth grade of a public school in Pereira Risaralda

La enseñanza y el aprendizaje de la pronunciación es un componente crucial en el aprendizaje de inglés como lengua extranjera. Sin embargo, no hay suficientes estudios que den cuenta de este tema en la región. Por esta razón, este estudio tiene como objetivo presentar el estado del arte en la enseñanza y aprendizaje de la pronunciación inglesa en un grado noveno de un colegio público de Pereira, Colombia. En este estudio se observaron las clases de inglés de un grado noveno perteneciente a un colegio público de Pereira. Para recolectar datos, además, se hizo una entrevista al profesor y una encuesta a los estudiantes. Se encontró que a la pronunciación inglesa no se le daba la importancia que se merece en el aula de inglés y que las pocas ocasiones en las que se trató, el acercamiento no fue efectivo aunque existen muchas estrategias y técnicas para trabajar con el componente fonético. Además, se encontró que las clases eran guiadas en español, lo que redujo significativamente las oportunidades para mejorar esta sub-habilidad. A partir de estos hallazgos, es claro que la enseñanza de la pronunciación -e inglés comunicativo en general- debe de ser considerada e implementada.Pronunciation teaching and learning is a key element of EFL classrooms. However, there is not a significant amount of relevant studies conducted in the region concerning this subject. This is the reason why this study intends to present the state of the art in pronunciation teaching/learning in a ninth grade from a public school in Pereira, Colombia. During this study, classes in a ninth grade from a public high school in Pereira were observed, the teacher interviewed, and the students surveyed in order to collect data. It was found that pronunciation was not given the importance it deserves in the EFL classroom and that the rare occasions to approach it were not effective even though there are plenty of techniques to be implemented. In addition, pronunciation was not tested, and the students did not appear to know what pronunciation entails. Also, it was ascertained that classes were guided in Spanish, which minimized the opportunities for upgrading this sub-skill. Out of the aforementioned elements, it is clear that teaching pronunciation-and communicative English in general- should be considered and implemented

La vulneración del debido proceso y la autonomía del Ministerio Publico con la desvinculación judicial de la acusación

El propósito de esta investigación de maestría, se orienta a establecer como la desvinculación judicial de la pretensión penal, afecta las garantías procesales, entre ellas la autonomía y facultad del pretensor penal, en el (NCPP) El numeral uno del artículo 374, del (NCPP), regula, la desvinculación, en los siguientes términos, en el trámite del juzgamiento, antes de la conclusión de la actuación, de pruebas, el juez advierte la eventualidad, de una calificación legal de los hechos, materia de actuación, que no ha sido tomado en cuenta por el persecutor penal, debería poner en conocimiento, a Este y al acusado, sobre esa eventualidad. Las partes, expondrán sobre el asunto, observado por el juez penal unipersonal o Colegiado, y en su caso propondrán la prueba útil que corresponda. Si alguna de las partes pone en conocimiento que no está preparada, para realizar su pronunciamiento, el juez penal suspenderá, el debate hasta por cinco días, a fin de que se exponga lo conveniente. Sobre lo anotado la antes citada figura procesal, afecta el debido proceso, no solo porque el juzgador está legitimado para realizar, la actividad que le atañe al Ministerio Publico como es formular la pretensión acusatoria, sino el estadio en la cual se aplica, sin tener en cuenta las etapas que tiene el proceso penal, promulgado por decreto legislativo novecientos cincuentaisiete, donde en la etapa de investigación preparatoria, el Ministerio Publico es el director encargado de conducir la investigación preparatoria, dispone las diligencias de investigación necesaria para recopilar elementos de convicción, ya sea con el fin de acusar o pedir el sobreseimiento, y por su parte la defensa de los demás sujetos procesales en un ejercicio del derecho de defensa y amparado en lo previsto en el inciso 4, del artículo 337 del NCPP, puede solicitar al Ministerio Publico, diligencias, actos de investigación para el esclarecimiento de los hechos. Vencida la etapa de investigación preparatoria el Fiscal, amparado en el numeral uno del artículo trescientos cuarenta y cuatro, puede formular acusación si tiene base suficiente de lo contrario tendrá que recurrir a formular el sobreseimiento, facultad que lo ejerce amparado en el numeral dos de la citada norma procesal. En la etapa intermedia la cual es dirigida por el juez de investigación preparatoria, en caso de requerirse acusación, Este, programara audiencia para control su admisibilidad donde se verificara que el Ministerio Publico cumpla con los presupuestos del artículo 349, del código Adjetivo penal, por su parte las demás partes procesales podrán observar la acusación, ya sea en el aspecto formular o sustancial, proponiendo medios de defensa, con el fin de buscar que se concluya en esa etapa el proceso penal, también ofertaran prueba para un posible juicio oral, de aprobarse el requerimiento acusatorio, el juez penal de investigación preparatoria, emitirá el auto de enjuiciamiento, correspondiente, teniendo como fundamento el artículo 353 del NCPP, el mismo que contendrá, datos del acusado, agraviado, la tipificación penal de los hechos acusados, se precisara las pruebas admitidas, etc., con la resolución del auto de enjuiciamiento concluye la segunda etapa del proceso penal, remitiéndose los actuados al juez de juzgamiento, para la continuación del trámite del proceso penal. El juzgamiento, considerado la etapa más importante, que se realiza, teniendo como horizonte o guía, la acusación, de acuerdo al artículo trescientos cincuenta y seis, con la observancia de las garantías del debido proceso, reconocidas en la Constitución y normas supranacionales, del cual nuestro país es parte, en el trámite del juicio será de aplicación obligatoria, la oralidad, la publicidad, inmediación, contradicción, en la actuación probatoria. Es decir él es medio sobre el cual se va llevar a cabo el juzgamiento, la misma que ha sido controlada, en una audiencia de etapa intermedia por un Juez Penal, el mismo también conoce el derecho, esta etapa que considero es la idónea para observar alguna cuestión que haya omitido el Ministerio público, sin embargo aplicar la desvinculación judicial conforme al numeral 1 del artículo 374 del NCPP, es efectivamente una afectación a las garantías del proceso, con incidencia al derecho de defensa toda vez que la defensa deber ser preparada en forma oportuna, conforme lo exige el articulo decimo del Título Preliminar del NCPP, toda vez que las partes asumen una posición respecto a la imputación en su contra preparando una estrategia, para afrontar el proceso penal, sin embargo aplicar la antes citada norma jurídica a las postrimerías de concluir el proceso, lo que considero, que no se vincula con el respeto y la tutela del debido proceso en su vertiente el derecho de defensa y el derecho a la prueba. Considero que la norma cuestionada debe ser excluida del ordenamiento adjetivo penal, caso contrario establecer que la desvinculación de la acusación fiscal sea realizada por el Juez de Investigación Preparatoria, a fin de dotarle al nuevo proceso penal las garantías de ir a juzgamiento con una acusación debidamente saneada, donde se puede asumir un juicio con la certeza que los parámetros de control aprobados en la audiencia de saneamiento procesal o etapa intermedia, son las verdaderas bases para el debate de juicio oral, sino estaríamos frente a una decisión, que tomaría el juez de juicio, en desventaja tanto de Ministerio Publico y con mayor dureza para el acusado, porque recibirá una sanción para la cual no fue advertida en las etapas anteriores al juicio oral. Efectivamente a partir del cuestionamiento a la norma antes citada no es pretender buscar la impunidad, sino el respete el debido proceso, toda vez que el espíritu del proceso penal, que cada parte legitimada ejerza su función con roles delimitados, por lo que de seguir aplicándose esta norma estaríamos retrocediendo, al antiguo modelo procesal decreto legislativo 124 y el Código de Procedimientos penales, ley 9040. Es claramente conocido que el Juez conoce la legislación y está en la obligación de aplicar la norma que corresponde, sino que tal control debe realizarse en un estadio, que permita a las partes asumir una efectiva defensa, asumir un juicio oral con la pretensión de las partes debidamente delimitada, e, incluso someterse al principio de conclusión anticipada.The purpose of this master's research is aimed at establishing how the judicial disengagement from the criminal claim affects the procedural guarantees, including the autonomy and power of the criminal claim, in the (NCPP). Numeral one of article 374, of the (NCPP), regulates, the separation, in the following terms, in the process of the trial, before the conclusion of the action, of evidence, the judge warns of the eventuality, of a legal qualification of the facts, the subject of action, which has not been taken into account by the criminal prosecutor, should inform the latter and the accused of this eventuality. The parties will present on the matter, observed by the unipersonal or collegiate criminal judge, and where appropriate they will propose the corresponding useful evidence. If any of the parties informs that it is not prepared, to make its pronouncement, the criminal judge will suspend the debate for up to five days, in order to expose what is convenient. Regarding the aforementioned procedural figure, it affects due process, not only because the judge is entitled to carry out, the activity that concerns the Public Ministry, such as formulating the accusatory claim, but the stage in which it is applied, without having taking into account the stages of the criminal process, promulgated by legislative decree nine hundred and fifty-seven, where in the preparatory investigation stage, the Public Ministry is the director in charge of conducting the preparatory investigation, arranges the necessary investigation procedures to collect elements of conviction, either in order to accuse or request the dismissal, and for their part, the defense of the other procedural subjects in an exercise of the right of defense and protected by the provisions of paragraph 4, article 337 of the NCPP, you can request the Ministry Public, proceedings, investigation acts to clarify the facts. Once the preparatory investigation stage has expired, the Prosecutor, covered by number one of article three hundred and forty-four, can file an accusation if he has sufficient basis, otherwise he will have to resort to formulate the dismissal, a power that is exercised under number two of the cited procedural rule. In the intermediate stage which is directed by the preparatory investigation judge, if an accusation is required, the latter will schedule a hearing to control its admissibility where it will be verified that the Public Ministry complies with the requirements of article 349, of the Criminal Adjective code, for On their part, the other procedural parties may observe the accusation, whether in the formulaic or substantial aspect, proposing means of defense, in order to seek to conclude the criminal process at that stage, they will also offer evidence for a possible oral trial, of If the accusatory requirement is approved, the preparatory investigation criminal judge will issue the corresponding indictment, based on article 353 of the NCPP, which will contain data of the accused, aggrieved, the criminal classification of the accused facts, it will be specified the evidence admitted, etc., with the resolution of the indictment concludes the second stage of the criminal process, remitting the s acted to the trial judge, for the continuation of the criminal process. The trial, considered the most important stage, which is carried out, having as a horizon or guide, the accusation, according to article three hundred and fifty-six, with the observance of the guarantees of due process, recognized in the Constitution and supranational norms, of the to which our country is a party, orality, publicity, immediacy, contradiction, in the evidentiary action will be mandatory in the trial process. That is to say, he is the means on which the trial will be carried out, the same that has been controlled, in an intermediate stage hearing by a Criminal Judge, he also knows the law, this stage that I consider is the suitable to observe any issue that the Public Ministry has omitted, however applying the judicial separation according to numeral 1 of article 374 of the NCPP, is effectively an affectation to the guarantees of the process, with an impact on the right of defense since the defense must be prepared in a timely manner, as required by Article 10 of the Preliminary Title of the NCPP, since the parties assume a position regarding the accusation against them, preparing a strategy to face the criminal process, however apply the aforementioned rule legal law after the conclusion of the process, which I believe is not related to the respect and protection of due process in its aspect, the right of defense and the right to evidence. I consider that the challenged norm should be excluded from the criminal adjective, otherwise establish that the dissociation of the prosecution is carried out by the Preparatory Investigation Judge, in order to give the new criminal process the guarantees of going to trial with a duly accusation healthy, where a trial can be assumed with the certainty that the control parameters approved in the hearing on procedural reorganization or intermediate stage, are the true bases for the oral trial debate, otherwise we would be facing a decision, which would be made by the court judge. trial, to the disadvantage of both the Public Ministry and with greater harshness for the accused, because he will receive a sanction for which he was not warned in the stages prior to the oral trial. Indeed, from the questioning of the aforementioned norm, it is not to try to seek impunity, but to respect due process, since the spirit of the criminal process, that each legitimated party exercises its function with delimited roles, so to continue applying This rule would be going back to the old procedural model, legislative decree 124 and the Code of Criminal Procedures, Law 9040. It is clearly known that the Judge knows the legislation and is obliged to apply the corresponding rule, but that such control must be carried out in a stage that allows the parties to assume an effective defense, to undertake an oral trial with the claim of the parties duly delimited, and even to submit to the principle of early conclusion.Tesi

Generating Co-occurring Facial Nonmanual Signals in Synthesized American Sign Language

Translating between English and American Sign Language (ASL) requires an avatar to display synthesized ASL. Essential to the language are nonmanual signals that appear on the face. In the past, these have posed a difficult challenge for signing avatars. Previous systems were hampered by an inability to portray simultaneously-occurring nonmanual signals on the face. This paper presents a method designed for supporting co-occurring nonmanual signals in ASL. Animations produced by the new system were tested with 40 members of the Deaf community in the United States. Participants identified all of the nonmanual signals even when they co-occurred. Co-occurring question nonmanuals and affect information were distinguishable, which is particularly striking because the two processes move an avatar’s brows in a competing manner. This breakthrough brings the state of the art one step closer to the goal of an automatic English-to-ASL translator. Conference proceedings from the International Conference on Computer Graphics Theory and Applications and International Conference on Information Visualization Theory and Applications, Barcelona, Spain, 21-24 February, 2013. Edited by Sabine Coquillart, Carlos Andújar, Robert S. Laramee, Andreas Kerren, José Braz. Barcelona, Spain. SciTePress 2013. 407-416

Combining Emotion and Facial Nonamanual Signals in Synthesized American Sign Language

Conference proceedings from the the 14th international ACM SIGACCESS conference on Computers and accessibility-2012. ASSETS \u2712. Boulder, CO, USA, October 22 - 24, 2012. New York, NY, USA: ACM. 249-250